• September 21st, 2018 | by Gregg S. Fisher, CFA, "Invest with Reason"

    Should Investors Exit International Stocks?

    • Foreign stocks have trailed badly behind US stocks so far in 2018, leading some investors to question whether they should maintain foreign exposure in their portfolios. • US and foreign stocks move in somewhat different cycles, which are difficult to predict. • Over most extended investment time horizons, a global portfolio outperforms a US-only […]

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  • August 10th, 2018 | by Gregg S. Fisher, CFA, "Invest with Reason"

    The Market’s Sea Change and What the Bond Market’s Trying to Tell Us

    Markets (equities and fixed income) have been more volatile in 2018 in the wake of rising interest rates, higher inflation, and geopolitical risk. The US stock market, underpinned by a strong economy and robust earnings growth, has outperformed foreign markets, but US equity valuations are elevated by historical standards. Most bond investments have lost money […]

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  • July 26th, 2018 | by Gregg S. Fisher, CFA, "Invest with Reason"

    Investing in Bonds in a Time of Rising Rates and a Flattening Yield Curve

    This year has been marked by losses in most bonds and a dramatic flattening of the interest-rate yield curve. Investors should focus on the defensive and risk-management roles of bonds in a diversified portfolio. We prefer short-term, high-quality bonds for their relatively high risk-adjusted returns and hedging quality in times of crisis. The first half […]

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  • July 11th, 2018 | by Gregg S. Fisher, CFA, "Invest with Reason"

    The Trouble with Small-Cap Growth Stocks

    Historically, small-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, but small-cap growth has been a weak performer. When we analyze small-cap growth stocks (US and international), we find that the asset class’ relatively poor returns can be explained by the ‘growthiest’ stocks in the category. Investors can improve investment performance by stripping out the ‘growthiest’ of small-cap […]

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  • May 1st, 2018 | by Gregg S. Fisher, CFA, "Invest with Reason"

    What’s a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate for a Retirement Portfolio?

    When we analyze rolling 30-year periods back to 1926, we find that a 4% withdrawal rate runs a low risk of depleting a retiree’s portfolio. Inflation has a significant impact on the sustainability of a retirement portfolio. We prefer a total return over an income-oriented approach to generate cash flow from a retirement portfolio. When […]

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